Presidential Elections 2008

A Rocky Mountain West Perspective With Bob Brown

By Greg Lemon, 11-29-07

	Photo Courtesy Of Bob Brown

Bob Brown was a long-time Republican legislator in Montana and most recently served as the Montana Secretary of State. Brown lost a bid for Governor to Democrat Brian Schweitzer. Brown is now a senior fellow in public policy at the University of Montana O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West in Missoula.

A native Montanan, Brown is known as somewhat of a guru about Montana and American political history. He took the time recently to answer a few questions from NewWest.net/Politics about the 2008 presidential race.

NewWest.net/Politics: The Rocky Mountain West has a total 44 electoral votes. The region was long thought to be a Republican stronghold, but that has changed with recent Democratic success. The region has also experienced widespread growth and has become a dynamic area socially, economically and politically.

Based on these changes, how will the Rocky Mountain West play in the presidential election?

Brown: I don’t think the West is or has been a Republican stronghold.  It has, however, pretty consistently followed the pattern of rural parts of the country over the last half century, in voting for Republican presidential candidates.  Democrats focus on the change taking place in the Intermountain West in the hope that it will work to their political advantage.  Their party, however, is largely dominated and influenced by interests, ideas and individuals from the urban coasts. They will have inherent difficulty connecting and competing in the largely rural West.

Recent state wide victories of Democratic candidate in the West have provided encouragement to Democrats that the West might be ripe for a break through in the contest for president.  Maybe.  But what has taken place here in recent years is not new.  In the 1970’s and 1980’s while Democratic governors Hirschler in Wyoming, Schwinden in Montana, Andrus in Idaho and Rampton in Utah were being elected and reelected by landslide margins Republican presidential candidates easily carried their states. As Tip O’Neil is supposed to have said, “all politics is local.” You can’t easily make a Hillary into a Hirschler. 

NWP: Of the potential presidential candidates, who has the best chance to win the region and why?

Brown: Romney’s religion could hurt him with some evangelicals, but they are not as significant in the West as in in the south and Midwest.  There are Mormons throughout the West.  Romney would have a powerful network from Arizona to Idaho. 

Bill Richardson could be the Democratic candidate for Vice President, and if so, that would be a good move by the Democrats.  His Hispanic roots would benefit their ticket in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and probably Texas, in addition to his home state of New Mexico.

Fred Thompson would naturally connect well across the West. 

NWP: What regional issues do you think presidential candidates will have to highlight in their campaign?

Brown: Since the Rocky Mountain West is hard to define as a region, issues which are important politically throughout the region are not easy to
identify.  Public lands management, rural communication systems and health services, stewardship of water, forests and rangelands, energy development and tribal sovereignty are all issues that are important in different parts of the West, but likely to be easily overshadowed by the “hot button” themes that will characterize both campaigns nationally.

NWP: What challenges does the Rocky Mountain West present to presidential candidates?

Brown: Vast geographic size and a sparse and diverse population.  In 1960 Richard Nixon promised to visit all 50 states.  He spent the critical week of October 8 - 15 keeping his promise by visiting the politically inconsequential states of Montana, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, and his home state of California while his opponent, John Kennedy, was in the electoral rich and politically competitive Midwest. Nixon lost Illinois, Missouri and Minnesota each by less than half a percentage point. If he had kept out of the West he probably would have got into the White House.

NWP: Will the states in the region replace the South as key battleground states?

Brown: The southern states have not traditionally been battleground states. What was the “solid south” for Democrats from the Civil War to Eisenhower is now solidly in the Republican camp.  The west has always been more competitive than the south.  By their decision to hold their national convention in Denver the Democrats have signaled that they see a possible opportunity in some western states.  The Democratic candidate for President may concentrate more time and resources here than in past recent elections.  That could bring positive results, but also could result in a waste of effort.

Perhaps an urban western strategy would make the most sense for the Democratic presidential candidate — Phoenix to Denver to Las Vegas. Few happy returns will result from a Democratic focus on Cheyenne, Billings and Boise while the Republican candidate is concentrating on the real battleground states of Missouri, Ohio and Florida where the outcome of the next election is likely to be determined. 

NWP: Can presidential campaigns focus on the Rocky Mountain West as one block of voters?

Brown: I don’t think so.  People in Montana and Idaho feel more in common with Washington, Oregon, the Dakotas and Minnesota than with Arizona and New Mexico.

NWP: What can hurt candidates in the Rocky Mountain West?

Brown: Trying to be who they are not.  An eastern liberal with a superficial knowledge of the West and a blade of straw in his or her mouth, obviously just here because of a perceived political opportunity, won’t win the West.  By who they are, Republicans better connect with the rural West.

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