Diary of a Mad Voter: Joan McCarter

Risch Underwhelmingly Ahead in Idaho

By Joan McCarter, 8-01-08

Research 2000, a non-partisan national polling outfit, found some very interesting results when they polled likely voters in Idaho this week. Those results have to be causing a bit of disquiet for the presumed next Senator from the state of Idaho, Republican Jim Risch.

See, despite the fact that he served as the state’s governor for a year, a third of Idaho’s voters don’t know enough about him to give an opinion, while a quarter of them don’t like him. At all. That gives the heir-apparent a 10 point lead over Democratic challenger Larry LaRocco, which is the good news. The bad news is he gets an incredibly anemic 42 percent of the vote as things stand. Which is very good news for Mr. LaRocco.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (No trend lines)
Risch (R) 42
LaRocco (D) 32
Rammell (I) 5
Undecided 17

What’s more, and this is where the fun comes in for all of us who love to watch the election horse race, 21 percent of Republicans said they were undecided in the race. Given that Idaho Republicans have three other choices, in the form of Independent Rex Rammell (who is likely to get a significant chunk of the Mormon vote), Libertarian Kent Marmon (likely to get a big chunk of the Ron Paul/Bob Barr vote), and Pro-Life (formerly known as Marvin Richardson--it’s pretty apparent who he’s targeting), the Republican vote could be as splintered as the Republican party in Idaho has been in recent months.

Recall this choice headline from the Wall Street Journal to have to publish this headline: “Idaho is No Longer a Lock for Republicans.” The fissures the WSJ were exploring related to the hot race in the 1st Congressional District.

SANDPOINT, Idaho—Bill Sali is defying the political odds by making Idaho’s first-district congressional race competitive. That isn’t good for Mr. Sali: He is the incumbent.

A 54-year-old Republican from Kuna, 18 miles from Boise, Mr. Sali represents one of the most heavily Republican electorates in the U.S. The district hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House since 1992; in the 2004 presidential race, 69% of its votes went to George W. Bush.

But through slow fund raising and a combative reputation, Mr. Sali has become vulnerable to his Democratic challenger, Walt Minnick, a businessman with little political experience.

Sali has been a core mover in an attempt by an extremely conservative faction of Idaho Republicans (as opposed to the run of the mill very conservative Idaho Republicans) to take over the party, which they succeeded in doing the party’s state convention when they teamed up with Ron Paul supporters to oust the long-serving and relatively moderate party chair.

Given all these factors, there’s likely to be a lot of ticket splitting all across the ballot in Idaho this year. A fractured Republican vote is the only hope for Idaho Dems, and it’s looking more and more likely that it can happen.

I’ve been arguing for months and months that something has been afoot in Idaho. Further evidence of that comes from FEC filings by the presidential campaigns. Via Jill Kuraitis here at New West, and the Statesman’s editorial page editor Kevin Richert news that Obama out-raised McCain in the last quarter demonstrates where the political enthusiasm in Idaho is right now.

Through June 30, Idahoans gave $375,586 to Barack Obama, the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee. Presumptive GOP nominee John McCain received $228,938.

Statewide, Mitt Romney — the preferred candidate of most leading Idaho Republicans — raised more than Obama and McCain combined. But the fact remains that Obama has raised 64 percent more than McCain in Idaho, with four months left in the election.

For the month of June, Obama raised $57,880 in Idaho. McCain raised $40,995. Even with Romney out of the picture as a presidential candidate, McCain trailed in fundraising in one of America’s most Republican states.

Here’s the tidbit most interesting for Idaho politics-watchers:

In the “836” zip codes — including heavily Republican Nampa, Meridian and Eagle — Obama has raised $43,156 to McCain’s $29,947. Among GOP candidates, McCain trailed not only Romney but Ron Paul.

This is the fastest growing part of the state and the most politically frustrating. As the population from bluing Boise expands west to these suburbs, Dems have been hoping that it would mean a breakdown in the Republican stranglehold on the area. That hasn’t happened yet, but the Ron Paul factor and the fracturing of the state Republican party.

Which holds some encouragement for both Democrats Walt Minnick in ID-01 and Larry LaRocco for Senate. First, the simple that Obama is leading in fundraising in the whole state shows that the part of the population that’s engaged and paying attention right now is much more motivated for change in the form of the Democratic ticket. The enthusiasm in the state right now is all on the Democrats’ side.

Minnick has the added benefit of a Sali financial meltdown. The latest is that Sali filed his FEC report 10 days late, shows anemic numbers, an existing and ongoing substantial debt, and some very funny numbers, including a $2,000 contribution from a PAC that apparently doesn’t exist. The Sali campaign can definitely be put in the “struggling” column.

On the Senate front, the Paul factor plays out in the candidacy of Independent Rex Rammell, the elk rancher who has an enduring hate-on for Republican candidate Risch and a personal fortune to propel his run. Given the disaffection so many Idaho Republicans are having with their state party and the candidate at the top of their ticket, another third party candidate in the form of an ultra-conservative Mormon like Rammell could pull a sizable margin from Risch.

Obama is pretty unlikely to win the state’s four electoral votes in November, though in the Research 2000 poll he’s behind just 16 points--Kerry lost to Bush in 2004 in the state by 39 points. But the impact of his run and the internal divisions in the Republican party could make this the year the stars weirdly align for Idaho’s Democrats. All this should be enough to make Obama consider another stop in the Gem State--preferably in that core Republican part of the state that’s behind him financially--on one of his Western states swings.

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