Year in Review

The Big Stories of 2008 - and 2009: West Surges Politically, Falters Economically

By Jonathan Weber , 12-31-08

	Obama in Missoula. Photo by Anne Medley.

It’s been quite a year in the New West news business, what with the historic presidential election, the economic meltdown, the real estate slump, the boom and bust in energy and other commodities, and all the long-running hot-button issues like wolf management, guns, land-use regulation and food and agriculture. Most of these big stories are carrying over in force into the new year, so we thought we’d combine a look back with a look forward, along with a few predictions.

The election of Barack Obama was the story of the century so far, and it did in the end confirm both the new importance of the Mountain West as a critical swing region, and the emergence of a new style of pragmatic Democratic party politics that promises to be a dominant force in regional politics for many years to come. In Colorado, Democrats swept the board, with Obama gaining key electoral votes, Bill Ritter easily winning the governor’s mansion, Mark Udall continuing his family’s dynasty in the Senate - and now, Sen. Ken Salazar poised to take the helm at the Department of the Interior. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, (fresh off hosting the Democratic National Convention, which was a boon to the Rockies in itself), appears to be a front-runner for Salazar’s old Senate seat, and if he’s half as popular in Washington as he has been in Denver, Coloradans should be feeling pretty good about their new found clout.

In Montana Democrats also had a good year; Obama didn’t carry the state but he made it a race, and (along with the Clintons) brought a little glamor with multiple appearances across the state. Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer’s popularity helped his party sweep all the statewide offices that were up for grabs, though the Republicans did manage to take control of the state Senate, which means the Governor’s agenda this year will be quite modest.

New Mexico was also a Democratic sweep in Congressional races, and Gov. Bill Richardson will be joining Salazar and Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano in the Obama cabinet. Even Idaho, among the reddest of red states, managed to elect Democrat Walt Minnick to Congress. Only in Utah and Wyoming did Republicans successfully protect their turf.

The economy, of course, was and will continue to be the other big story in the region. 2008 will certainly go down as the year that the real estate party ended in the Rocky Mountain West (it ended earlier in other places), and 2009 promises to be a brutal year for most real estate related businesses. The luxury development boom in particular came to a crashing end, with outright bankruptcies at the Yellowstone Club in Montana, Tamarack Resort in Idaho, and Promontory in Utah. Some other fancy resort developments - notably Moonlight Basin and Spanish Peaks in Montana - are hanging on by a thread, and promise plenty of financial drama in 2009. Yet others, such as the Ameya Preserve in Montana, look to be dead before they even got started. The developments that were funded by reckless lending on the part of everyone from Credit Suisse and Lehman Bros. to ANB Financial are almost all in trouble; about the only calm in the eye of the storm appears to be Bill Foley’s empire (Rock Creek Cattle Co., Whitefish Mountain Resort) which he funded with his own cash.

The next rung down in the market - the $500,000 to $1 million-dollar houses and second homes for the rich, as opposed to the super-rich - is also floundering, especially in once-hot resort markets like Whitefish, Bozeman, Sun Valley and even Vail. And of course real estate for normal people is in a slump too, though the bust has been nowhere near as dramatic as in Sunbelt markets like Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix. Generally, the low end of the housing market in the region is holding up OK. But the hopes that continued strength in commercial construction would help offset the impact of the housing meltdown on bankers and building tradesmen are now fading, and 2009 will be the time when the real economic impact of the real estate bust filters through.

Indeed, commercial real estate could emerge as a new trouble spot as the retail sector endures a secular shift not seen in a generation. In the wake of the worst Christmas shopping season in anyone’s memory, a rash of store closings are expected over the next month. Some big chains - Linens ‘n Things, Circuit City - have already gone bankrupt, and more are likely to follow. Even the survivors will be pruning their store count; look for a lot of empty spots in the local mall next year. Mom and pop retailers face the same challenges, and are trying to encourage everyone to Buy Local.

Greater consciousness of the local-ness - in merchandise, in food, and even in recreational opportunities - could be a silver lining for some businesses in 2009.

On the other hand, when times are tough, planning, zoning and conservation tend to get short shrift. Hopefully not too many communities will follow the example of Ravalli County and repeal their growth management policies, but it could happen.

As for other “New Westy” topics, like books or travel & outdoors, we’d rather let the experts themselves give you their looks back and predictions. Click here for Wild Bill Schneider’s look ahead for outdoors new and here for Jenny Shank’s rundown of the best of Western literature in 2008. And, to watch the year pass in stunning photography, click here for a slideshow of 2008’s best NewWest.Net featured images.

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