FROM THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

The Election: Views from the Long Tail

By Christian Probasco, 8-31-08

	Sarah Palin, Ms. Wasilla, circa 1984. Easy on the eyes.

I was in Denver while the DNC was running its course but I literally steered clear of the main event.  When the helicopters began circling like flies and cops with radar guns took up positions on every on/off ramp east of town, and the traffic slowed until it was stuck, I drove my rig out of the city on back roads.  That was my DNC experience: avoiding it.

Those who did not consent to be governed are still expected to play by the rules of those who do.  Doesn’t seem fair to me. But then, nobody said life was fair.

It’s obvious from the cascade of articles about the convention on New West alone, that there are a lot of people out there who have more of a stake in the outcome of this election than me. 

Blacks, obviously. Being told that race isn’t a deciding factor in American elections anymore hardly compares with putting a black person in the Oval Office. It’s the difference between what is said and what you can see with your own eyes.

And women, though that demographic may be split by McCain’s choice for vice-president. To what degree, I couldn’t say, though Obama had a ten point lead over McCain among women before McCain chose Sarah Palin, according to a Gallup poll. 

I’ve done some surfing and here are some takes on how Palin will affect the race:

From the Huffington Post a video the Republicans should have tried to suppress as much as the Democrats should have suppressed the Obama-in-a-turban photo (but then, how much did the latter affect Obama’s campaign?).  Brings up the possibility of the Democrats painting Sarah Palin as a bimbo.  Would they shoot themselves in the foot by doing so?

Also from the Huffington Post, Palin as the worst VP choice ever, and she hasn’t even served a day of her sentence.  She even beat out Dan Quayle, who had four years to prove his nincompoopedness. I’m not familiar with Elisberg’s work but he begins one of his paragraphs, “It’s always said that the most important decision a presidential candidate makes is their pick for vice president.” (“Always”? By whom?  What do Hillary Clinton and John Edwards think of that analysis?).  But Elisberg brings up an important point: there were many other women far more qualified for the job. 

And from Salon, Palin as a mere token.  I can see it that way.  In any case, she’s not going to have much time to prove herself.  One thing she has going for her here, however, is that she is a Westerner, which McCain doesn’t appear to be.  McCain, whatever maverick image he may have pushed in the past, is a Washington insider, bought and paid for, just like Hillary Clinton.  The question, again, is, “Will the Democrats make themselves look like elitists by attacking Palin’s blue-collar roots, her religious values, her former big hair and/or her lack of experience?”

Obama seems to have the youth vote tied up, to the extent that youth vote.  The under-thirty crowd already trends towards liberalism, and Barack is way left on most issues.  Didn’t the nation shift to the right and shun the idea of centralized planning after the fall of the Soviet Union? Not according to the Democratic platform.

Obama is also reputed to possess that most elusive quality of politicians, “Mojo.” He can speak, too (when did that become optional for politicians?), and he has the “Vision Thing.”

Obama, who is, “...interested in the repeal of the Defense of Marriage Act,” should sweep the gay vote.  And he should do well among those who opposed the invasion of Iraq, and those of us who don’t understand why we’re still occupying that nation.  By “us,” for the first time, I include myself.  W. had the South and swayed enough of the West to win election and reelection, but I think he’s revealed himself to be more of a Southerner than a Westerner (he’s supposedly afraid of horses and he, um, receives messages directly from the almighty), and more of an Eastern establishment figure than either.  He appeals to “law and order” and “big government” Republicans.  I still haven’t received a satisfactory answer as to what either of those could be.  Nor have I received an answer as to how the Republicans could nominate a candidate espousing a political philosophy rooted in Trotskyism.

Working against Obama and Biden is the fact that well over half of American households now own stocks in one form or another, up from twenty percent in 1983.  Most Americans are capitalists.  When the Democrats rail against the windfall profits of those corporations which haven’t donated enough to their party, they’re also railing against the dividends collected by middle-class workers.

Now a new “twist.” As I write this, hurricane Gustav is bearing down on New Orleans.  The Republican Convention has been “curtailed.” It will be interesting to see how both sides spin this one, no pun intended. 

A current Gallup poll shows Obama leading McCain by six points. 

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