Montana Primary Live Blog
Obama Wins Montana, Nomination
By Courtney Lowery, 6-03-08
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Photos by Alexia Beckerling
After enjoying an unprecedented turn in the national political spotlight, Montana voters went to the polls Tuesday, and confirmed Sen. Barack Obama’s nomination as the Democratic presidential candidate. As the last primary voters of the season (although its not quite over) Montanan relished the chance to, as several said, feel like Iowa or New Hampshire for once.
“It’s just been electric. That’s all I can say. Everybody, young and old, wants to vote and that’s the way it should be,” said Phyllis Vining a volunteer in Missoula.
It was all a bit overshadowed by Obama’s delegate surge late in the day Tuesday. Just as polls were closing in Montana, Obama was giving his victory speech in Minneapolis.
Montanans showed up in droves Tuesday, possibly energized by the attention given to them by both campaigns. By 1:00 a.m. Wednesday, 92 percent of the votes were counted and 249,920 ballots had been cast, a 13.5 percent increase from the 2004 presidential primary. For those who subscribe to the Montana, red-state-turning-blue theory, or just interested in whether the attention did indeed “energize” Montana Democrats, Tuesday numbers stack up. There were 164,845 Democratic ballots cast Tuesday, opposed to 93,543 cast in 2004—a difference of 71,302 votes, a jump of 76 percent. Obama got more votes in Montana Tuesday than all Democratic votes in 2004. Clinton had better numbers than the John Kerry did in 2004 as well.
Obama’s win was decisive with a 15-point lead at last count and 56 percent of the vote. But Clinton, who won South Dakota Tuesday night, came very close in several counties and won a few as well.
Obama has fared well in the Rocky Mountain West, where demographics are shifting rapidly and independent-minded voters have responded to his message of change. But the contests in Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming were caucuses, where the dynamics can be different from a primary, and most of those contests took place before big Clinton wins in Pennsylvania and other states cast doubt on Obama’s ability to win working-class white voters.
In Montana, Obama was expected to run strongly in Western Montana, where there’s a large student population and many upscale professionals, and among Native Americans. Clinton’s base in the state is among rural and working class voters in Eastern Montana. Both theories proved true Tuesday.
Clinton and Obama made multiple tours through the state, though Hillary and Bill Clinton were especially diligent in traveling across the state and wooing voters one by one. The Clintons’ intense focus on retail politics certainly gave her a boost in choice counties.
The cities were pivotal, as always, and Missoula lived up to its promise in voting overwhelmingly for Obama. But the surprise came in Gallatin County, where Bozeman is the county seat. There, Obama posted a 70 percent to 28 percent win and nearly more than 9,000 new Democrats showed up to the polls over the last presidential primary. We’ll have more analysis and nitty-gritty results in the coming days.
Until then, here’s a blow by blow of the night as we live blogged it.
11:31 p.m. We’re getting wrapped up here with 91 percent of the counties now reporting and Obama still holding a steady 12-point lead with 39 percent of the vote. Counties left to report: Judith Basin, Teton, Meagher, Mussellshell and Phillips, all counties with smaller populations. Perhaps the biggest blowout for Obama came in Gallatin County, where he took 72 percent of the 12,464 votes cast. The surge came in new Democratic voters. In the 2004 presidential primary, 5,479 Democratic ballots were cast compared to 12,464 this year.
11:15 p.m. 78 percent of the counties are now reporting and Obama’s lead is shrinking slightly with tight races in Yellowstone, Cascade and Valley Counties. Obama now has 40 percent of the vote to Hillary’s 27 percent.
10:48 p.m. With 44 percent of the vote in, Obama is furthering himself from Clinton with 58 percent of the vote to her 40 percent.
10:27 p.m. Montana’s primary is porportial, meaning Obama and Clinton will split the 16 delegates according to the final vote tallies. Right now, Obama has won 8 delegates and Clinton has won 4. Obama will get the support of all eight of Montana’s super delegates: Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Party Chairman Dennis McDonald, Vice Chair Margaret Campbell, Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, fomer Sen. John Melcher, party committee member Jeanne Lemire Dahlman and Lewis and Clark County Commissioner Ed Tinsley.
10:25 p.m.With the Secretary of State’s Web site clogging up, try this site, which has essentially the same data: http://www.montanasvotecounts.com/
10:12 p.m. While we have a few moments as results come in, a quick look at where counties in the state seem to be going:
Hi-Line and far eastern counties (Toole and Liberty; Fallon, Powder River and McCone) tipped toward Hillary, which central, western and southern counties (the “Cowboy Boot") tended toward Obama. Missoula, of course, had the highest Obama support with 66 percent. But, that’s still nothing compared to how he did in the Idaho caucus Super Tuesday when he took 80 percent of the vote.
Obama has fared well in the Rocky Mountain West, where demographics are shifting rapidly and independent-minded voters have responded to his message of change. But the contests in Colorado, Idaho and Wyoming were caucuses, where the dynamics can be different from a primary, and most of those contests took place before big Clinton wins in Pennsylvania and other states cast doubt on Obama’s ability to win working-class white voters.
10:00 p.m. NewWest.Net reporter Kaylee Porter reports back from the Hillary Clinton primary party in Missoula that the mood stayed optimistic tonight, many supporters staying late and mentioning that they would be open to their candidate in the VP spot.
9:56 p.m. According to CNN.com numbers, Obama is expanding his lead with 59 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 39 percent. About 22 percent of the vote has been counted.
9:46 p.m. FYI, the Montana Secretary of State’s Web site is running really slow, if not at all, so I’m getting results now from the Associated Press or CNN.com
9:40 p.m. With 10 percent of the vote in, Obama is leading in Montana 56 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent.
9:31 p.m. Matt Gouras with the Associated Press has the story about Montana’s super delegates’ commitment to Obama.
9:30 p.m. The Wilma, where the Obama election party was, emptied almost immediately after Obama’s speech. Before that though, supporters were pretty fired up. “When Obama clinched the nomination, I was just ecstatic. I got tears in my eyes,” said Roxanne Berg, Obama volunteer told NewWest.Net reporter Peter Metcalf. The Washington Post correspondent here in Missoula characterized it all this way: “The white, liberal college town faithful hung on every word audible from the Xcel center in St. Paul.”
9:23 p.m. Some news organizations are now calling Montana for Obama. With 5 percent of the vote in, Obama leads 55 percent to Clinton’s 41 percent.
9:14 On the Republican side, John McCain has a runaway with 85 percent of the vote to Ron Paul’s 13 percent. Paul had been somewhat of a favorite in Montana and actually beat McCain in the Republican caucus on Super Tuesday.
9:08 p.m. Gov. Brian Schweitzer just told Sally Mauk on Montana Public Radio that he will support (as a super delegate) Barack Obama, following the lead of voters in Montana. (He also said “huntin’ and fishin’” twice.)
9:06 p.m.: Obama is leading in Montana with just 4 percent of the vote in. He leads with 49 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent. Counties now reporting are: Missoula, Lewis and Clark, Deer Lodge, Flathead, Jefferson, Petroleum and Sweet Grass.
8:50 p.m.: With partial, unofficial results in from four of the 50 counties, Obama leads in Montana 58 percent to Hillary’s 39 percent. The four counties counted are Lewis and Clark, Yellowstone, Petroleum and absentee ballots in Missoula County.
8:37 p.m.: Yellowstone County (Billings) results are in. Obama leads there 50 percent to Hillary’s 46 percent with all the votes in.
8:27 p.m. Absentee ballots are counted in Missoula and Obama has an overwhelming lead in the county with about 70 percent to Clinton’s 28 percent.
8:18 The first results are in from Montana. The AP says 1 percent of the vote is in and Obama is leading 5,168 votes to 4,759. On the Republican side, McCain has 5,178 votes to Ron Paul’s 766. No results yet from the Secretary of State.
8:16 p.m. Clinton is the projected winner in South Dakota with 56 percent of the vote to Obama’s 44 with 48 percent of the vote in. Obama just congratulated Clinton on her win in South Dakota.
8:14 p.m. Obama speaking in Minneapolis thanks everyone in Montana and South Dakota “who stood up for change.” He commends Clinton for her strength, courage and comittment. “Sen. Hillary Clinton has made history in this campaign.”
8:05 Results will start rolling in here soon in Montana, but as I mentioned earlier, Obama is showing strong in exit polling.
7:53 p.m.In South Dakota: Hillary - 56%, Obama - 44% (35 percent of the vote in). Polls close here in Montana in six minutes.
7:46 She will indeed keep the promise. She just said: “I will be making no decisions tonight.” But, she’s asked to hear from people through her Web site.
7:45 p.m. Is Hillary going to keep her promise to Montanans—the one she made in Missoula—that she’ll make sure Montana will have a say? This speech is going on long enough—maybe she’ll keep going until the polls close at 8 p.m.
7:41 p.m. To people asking, “What does Hillary want?” Hillary says, “I want what I have always fought for… I want to end the war in Iraq, I want to turn this country around ....”
7:40 p.m. Hillary: “I’ve been fighting for you my whole adult life.”
7:37 p.m. Hillary says the party is energized, the race has “created enthusiasm among those we seek to serve” and pledges to move the party forward.
7:36 p.m.: South Dakota results, with 26 percent reporting: Clinton: 56% Obama: 44%
7:33 p.m. Hillary says, “People in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and the territories all had a chance to have your voices heard.” She adds the normal bit about her winning the “popular vote” and commends voters for continuing to cast their votes even though “naysayers” and “pundits” said the race was over.
7:31 p.m. Hillary Clinton is addressing folks right now in New York. We’re listening on NPR.
7:23 p.m.: Exit polls are showing Obama is showing strong in Montana with 54 percent to Hillary’s 40 percent. That’s from CNN, which says the exit poll included 873 voters. A rather funny snippet from that story: “Obama appeared to be the choice of white voters who made up the overwhelming majority of respondents.”
7:13 p.m. Polls have closed in South Dakota and The New York Times is now all but calling the nomination for Obama. From the lead story: “Regardless of the results [from South Dakota and Montana], Mr. Obama should receive enough delegates in those two states to assure him the nomination.”
7:01 p.m. Here’s the Washington Post story on voter turnout in Montana. (A choice quote from a Missoulian: “Tell you the truth, I don’t really like any of ‘em. Obama’s got some very childish approaches to things. Hillary can’t even balance her campaign funds. And I think McCain’s a warmonger. I was in the same war he was. He ought to have mellowed out by now.")
Bowen Greenwood, at the Secretary of State’s office told us earlier that they were seeing “very high participation” and the Post story says they’re expecting a 10 percent jump over the last presidential primary, which would bring it to 47 percent turnout. I’m curious to see if that will shake out, and we’ll be looking at the number of Republican ballots cast versus the number of Democratic ballots to see if all this talk about an “energized” Democratic party in Montana will hold water.
Here will be the numbers to compare:
2000 primary:
Democrats: 87,867 ballots (39.3%)
Republicans: 112,747 (50.9%)
Reform: 617 (.3%)
2004
Democrats: 93,543 (42.5%)
Republicans: 112,747 (51.2%)
6:39 p.m.: We’re just short of an hour and a half away from polls closing across the state and everyone’s anxious to see which way Montana will go. Anecdotally, (and remember, we’re in Missoula, so it’s not really an indication of what the rest of Montana thinks) Obama has been a favorite. (One of our reporters has only heard the names Obama and McCain, very few mentions of Hillary.) B
Barbara Theroux of Fact and Fiction in Missoula was just on NPR talking about how this election has energized Montanans and how many are talking about how this must be what Iowa and New Hampshire feels like on primary day.
But, with the day-long buzz that started with reports of Hillary conceding (which she denied) and now the Associated Press has calling the whole shebang for Obama, it seems Montana is already losing our spotlight.
But, you never know, the way this race has been going, anything can happen. (Like Ron Paul winning the Republican primary?)
We’ll keep you updated throughout the night with results, lots of photos and thoughts from Montanans. Stay tuned.
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