From the Daily Yonder
The Rural West Lags In Census Returns
By Roberto Gallardo, Daily Yonder, Guest Writer, 4-15-10
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The rural West is dawdling in returning this year's U.S. Census, according to the agency's numbers.
See the accompanying map from our friends at Daily Yonder and you'll see a big red swath running down the Rockies. Red counties mean a 17 to 40 percent return rate.
The lowest return rate came from Hinsdale County, Colorado, population 790. There, Roberto Gallardo of Daily Yonder reports, only 17 percent of the population returned their Census forms.
Read on for Gallardo's full report.
What explains the differences from place to place in the 2010 Census response rate?
The map above shows the percentage of households in rural counties that have sent back their Census forms. (Click on the map to see a bigger version.) The lowest response rate comes from Hinsdale County, Colorado, the least densely populated county in the state. (Census count in 2000 for Hinsdale tallied 790 souls.) Only 17% of the county’s population had sent back Census forms by Monday.
Meanwhile, the highest response rate (as of April 5) could be found in two counties: Pierce County, North Dakota, and Brown County, Minnesota. These two counties toped 81%. (To find the latest response rates — they are updated every day — go here.)
There have been all sorts of explanations for why some places have been quick to respond to the Census while others have lagged. One report suggested Republicans may be holding back as a protest against big government. Another reporter claimed to have “debunked” this story.
In an effort to understand why counties have higher response rates than others, the Daily Yonder has conducted an analysis at the county/parish level to help explain the variation in the 2010 census response rates.
According to the U.S. Bureau, the average national response rate was close to 60% as of April 5th, 2010. Our first question is whether rural areas are responding at different rates than urban counties. They are. The graph here shows the response rates broken down between metro counties, counties with small cities (micro counties) and those purely rural counties.
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Both metro and micro counties in the country are above the national average (59.75%) while noncore counties fall below the national average.
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Well, they are. We pulled out all the counties (rural and urban) that voted for John McCain in 2008 at rates above the national average. We found that nearly 58% of the pro-McCain counties are responding BELOW the national average. Only 42% of the pro-McCain counties are responding to the Census at rates above the national average. In other words, the more votes McCain received in a county in 2008, the fewer Census forms that county has returned by April 5th 2010. (And, yes, this relationship is statistically significant.)
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Counties with high levels of poor people are slow responders. Only a third of the counties with poverty rates above the national average are also above the national average in responding to the Census. The higher the poverty rate, the lower the census response rate. Again, this relationship is statistically significant.
When all the math is finished, four variables explain about a third of the differences in response rate among counties. These variables are the percent of Republican votes in 2008, the percent white in 2008, the percent in poverty in 2008, and whether a county is urban or rural.
Urban counties that are richer and whiter than average are sending back their Census forms in larger numbers than counties that are rural, poorer, less white and voted for John McCain in 2008.
Roberto Gallardo is a Research Associate at Mississippi State University's Southern Rural Development Center.
This story originally appeared at www.DailyYonder.com, a “daily multi-media buffet” of everything rural.
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Comments
However the Census folks left packets at EVERY 2nd home, condo, cabin, summer cow camp, winter sheep camp, migrant worker house, and some fishing shacks.
Those season visitors, much like migrating birds, won't be here till summer time.
And thise part time westerners have probably already been counted where they live regularly. So while a number of forms have not been returned--they do not represent real residents.
This is not an investigation to see what the 'guvmint' is going to do to you or what they are going to screw you into.
What are you babbling about?
The "facts" put out by Rep Bachman and FOX news are total lies that's all. Make more of it if you wish, but remember, if you don't fill out the census and send it in it is partly your fault that you don't get funding for the new school that is needed.
Just fill out the census and make sure your friends fill them out too. Man-up and do the right thing for America.
The conclusion that "four variables [of those examined] explain about a third of the differences in response rate among counties" is a statement about statistical inference where "explain" doesn't necessarily explain anything, other than what variables are or are not correlated.
There is something to see here -- a lovely colored map of U.S. counties. But not so much in the text. Move along.
Starting in January, a address specific census form was placed in EVERY single unit identified months before.
These were done by car, on foot, by snowmobile and whatever means to took to reach these places.
Each from had a prepaid, pre-addressed envelope to return. It is my opinion that most of the residents in the western U S have returned these. We full well understand the correct count of numbers for local, state, and national politics and funding.
Some ski resort communities have up to 80% non-resident ownership. Each unit got a census form. The request was for the count as of 4/1/10.
Some of these units had grown kids living in them and they will be counted. But most were vacant other than to be rented as part of an ownership package.
It is the unanswered ones that the "enumerators" will call on to see if anyone is there. My county and the neighboring county are bigger than many New England states. It is not an easy place to hide and
I do not know of anyone trying to hide here. Back east or down south would be a much better place to hide out that the wild and wide open west.
I note the author was reading government forms and is from the south, perhaps his lack of knowledge of the region and its people helped him draw the wrong assumptions.
The county and towns all are helping push getting the Census info done and in. But there will be forms that no one sees until the snow melts and the water goes down.
And those forms that are in shops or barns may never be completed.
"Get the Gub'mint off my back - Where's my Farm subsidy check!"