mccain vs. obama

The State of the Race in the Rockies

By Robert Saldin, 9-21-08

	Electoral votes in the Rocky Mountains.

Emboldened Democrats spent the summer eagerly looking West with the expectation of picking up electoral votes in the Rockies while skittish Republicans have fretted about losing what once was a reliably red region.  In particular, Barack Obama’s campaign has been courting voters in Colorado, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico—all states carried by George W. Bush in 2004.  Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, have campaigned extensively in the Rockies and—perhaps most telling—Democrats decided to stage their convention in Denver in an effort to reach out to the region’s voters. But all this was before the Republican National Convention and the arrival of the much-loved and much-loathed Sarah Palin.  An unpretentious Idaho native and the governor of the wildest of Western states, many assumed that she would crush the Democrats’ Mountain West insurgency.  Now that we have some distance from the conventions—and before the debates commence—it’s a reasonable time to examine where the race stands in the Rockies.

Nationally, John McCain clearly won the battle of the conventions.  One week before the Democratic convention (and the hype surrounding it) began, Obama enjoyed a 3.0 point advantage over McCain according to the Real Clear Politics’ (RCP) average of recent polls.  But now, two weeks after McCain’s acceptance speech at his convention-enough time to have seen him get a 2.9 point post-convention bump before the race returned to some state of equilibrium-the RCP national average shows an Obama lead down to 1.9 points, for 1.1 point McCain swing.

The best way to assess where things stand in the Rockies is to take this national figure as a baseline and compare it to those coming out of specific Western states.  It should be noted, that polling isn’t an exact science and that the comparison isn’t perfect because the polling done in individual states is generally less reliable and less frequent than that done nationally.  Due to the relative scarcity of state polls, it’s also impossible to take daily measurements as national tracking polls do.  Nonetheless, taking RCP-like averages of the state polls from early June (when Obama dispatched Hillary Clinton) until prior to the conventions, and then comparing those figures to the state polls released in the two weeks after the conventions, offers a good glimpse of where the race stands-and how the conventions and Palin affected-Rocky Mountain voters.

From a regional perspective, the results indicate that, with the exception of Montana, McCain’s numbers in the West lag behind his national gains.  In Colorado, Obama actually extended his advantage.  Prior to the conventions, Centennial State polls showed Obama with a 1.71 point lead over McCain while an average of the state’s six post-convention polls gives him a 2.66 point advantage.

The other three western battlegrounds show McCain gains.  However, in Nevada and New Mexico, they lagged behind the national figure.  Pre-convention, Nevada polls gave McCain a narrow 1.0 point lead, while a pair of post-convention polls average out to give the Arizona Senator a 2.0 point edge, for a gain of 1.0 point.  Similarly, New Mexico appears to have moved slightly in McCain’s direction—a 4.5 pre-convention Obama advantage has trickled down .2 points based on three post-convention polls—but, again, less than the national average.

Among the Western battlegrounds, McCain has only exceeded his national gains in Montana.  Prior to the convention, Big Sky voters were surveyed twice with results showing Obama ahead by an average of 2.5 points.  But the one poll since the conventions shows McCain up by 11, for a pro-GOP swing of 13.5 points.  Something seems to have resonated in Montana that missed the rest of the Rockies.

Three conclusions can be drawn about the state of the presidential election in the Rockies.  First, and again with the exception of Montana, Palin power doesn’t seem to have led to the massive Western swing toward McCain that some expected.  In fact, his numbers in the three other battleground states lag behind his national gains.  Second, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico remain fierce battlegrounds and could decide the election.  And finally, Obama’s flirtations with Montana are probably over.  With the presidential election surprisingly close, Democrats must focus solely on winning a bare majority of electoral votes.  Indeed, this task will be difficult enough.  Summer dreams of a landslide—in which winning conservative states like Montana would underscore claims on a national mandate—no longer seem very realistic short of a major change of events.  Expect more of Obama in the Rockies, just not in Big Sky Country.

Robert Saldin is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Montana.

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