the election

Thousands of New Montana Voters Could Tip State to Obama

Already, if all of the newly registered Montana voters show up on Election Day, it will be more than an 8 percent jump compared to the turnout in 2004, largely the result of Obama's army of volunteers.

By Matthew Frank, 9-12-08

The polls indicate that Sen. John McCain is riding a post-convention bounce, boosted as well by running mate Gov. Sarah Palin's popularity (which could prove particularly advantageous in the West). In Montana, a state Sen. Barack Obama visited five times before Labor Day, McCain surged to an 11-point lead in the most recent poll. That's compared to a five point Obama lead in early July.

But, as is the case nationally, the Obama campaign is relying on its ground game -- in Montana, that's the 15,000 or so volunteers making phone calls, knocking on doors and registering people to vote -- to tip the election its way.

Montana Democratic Party spokesman Kevin O'Brien calls it "the most organized, biggest ground game in the history of Montana politics," and he predicts that a record number of new voters will head to the polls in November.

How many new voters? According to figures from the Montana Secretary of State's office:

• 38,063 new voter registrations have been turned in since January 1. (This number does not include address changes.)
  
  
• Of these new voters, 24,405 are between the ages of 18 and 35 years old, a demographic that heavily favors Obama.
  
  
• 16,848 have registered since the June 3 primary, 10,841 of whom are between 18 and 35.
  
  
• The numbers may not seem huge, but Montana had only 630,633 registered voters (and 285,215 votes cast) on June 3. There were 456,096 votes cast in the general election in 2004.

"This is the highest number of newly registered voters we've had since the National Voting Rights Act in 1994," which changed how voter turnout statistics are measured, said Bowen Greenwood, communications director for the Secretary of State's office. He said it's clear that the bulk of registration cards are being turned in by Obama campaign organizers.

In Missoula, which may be somewhat of an outlier being a college town, elections administrator Vickie Zeier said the elections office is already working overtime to process the rush of registrations (8,099 since the primary), the earliest it's ever had to do so.

	Volunteers make phone calls from the Obama campaign office in Missoula. Photos by Matthew Frank.

"I would say that I've never seen it as intense this early in the game," Zeier said.

The Obama campaign has been so effective, said Matt Singer, director of the nonpartisan political action organization Forward Montana, that his group decided to halt its own registration efforts, opting to direct its resources elsewhere. Still, Forward Montana has registered 4,000 voters this cycle, Singer said.

Which makes the point that not all of these new registrations can be attributed to Obama's army of volunteers. But most.

"Obama is better at this than any presidential campaign in history, there's no doubt about that," Singer said. (Though he also notes that the campaign could do a better job of training its volunteers.)

The campaign's work, plus its 16 offices around the state, reflects its strategy for reaching 270 electoral votes and the presidency.

"There are a lot of ways to get over 270 votes," said Caleb Weaver, the Montana communications director for the Obama campaign. "Al Gore came up one vote short [in 2000], but everyone focused on Florida. But he didn't need Florida's 27 electoral votes to win. If he had won Montana's three votes, he would have been president."

"The three electoral votes Montana has could be the difference."

Montana Republican Party Chairman Erik Iverson doesn't see Obama snaring those three votes; he predicts a McCain victory by between 8 and 10 points. Iverson said that even with all the Obama drop-ins, the money spent, the doors knocked on and the registrations turned in, "he's done nothing but slide in the polls." He even said: "I'm skeptical that there's going to be much of an Obama presence left by Election Day."

Iverson claims about half of the thousands of new voters for his party.

"They're registering a lot of voters…but we're pretty good at it, too," he said.

In Montana voters can register up until the polls close on Election Day. Early voting begins October 6.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include the perspective of Bowen Greenwood of the Montana Secretary of State's Office.

Like this story? Get more! Sign up for our free newsletters.