Guest Column

What Will Climate Change Cost Montanans?

By Ray Rasker, Headwaters Economics, Guest Writer, 10-26-09

Climate change is here. It’s already influencing economic decisions and conditions across the world.

Yet most of the analysis on the impacts of climate change has been so large or abstract—the global impacts of weather patterns or rising sea levels—that the results often hold little value for an average family or small business.

Locally, there has been little research on the direct impacts that climate change will have on Montana communities.  Fortunately, more analysis is starting to take place at the state and local level.

Thursday, October 29th, Bozeman will have an opportunity to hear from Dr. Ernie Niemi, one of the country’s experts on the economic impacts of climate change at the state level.

Addressing the question—“What does climate change mean for Montanans?”—will help us make better decisions about how to adapt, save money, and preserve our quality of life.

Already the limited number of studies on specific, narrow impacts of climate change in Montana are helping inform our decisions.  One study from earlier this year, for example, analyzes the impacts of climate change on wildland fire suppression costs in Montana, finding that a one-degree Fahrenheit increase in average summer-time temperature will at least double the cost of protecting Montana residences from forest fires during the next fifteen years. 

That analysis, conducted by Headwaters Economics with the help of Montana State University statisticians, showed that additional residential development and hotter summers will increase the average cost of protecting Montana homes from forest fires from an average of $28 million annually today to roughly $80 million by 2025.

To put this in perspective, these projected fire suppression costs, even at the lower end of the range, are greater than the Montana Department of Agriculture’s entire budget, and exceed the state’s annual contributions to such programs as child support enforcement, the department of military affairs, the library commission, and the department of environmental quality.

Our current policy of paying fire fighting costs is unsustainable.  Now is the time to implement responsible, accountable steps such as having states map their ‘fire plain,’ applying lessons learned from floodplain regulations, requiring more equitable cost-sharing, or implementing variable insurance rates.

Other specific aspects of climate change in Montana that are being studied include impacts on fisheries, water availability, wildlife migration, crop yields, and planting seasons.

When Dr. Niemi visits Bozeman next week he will provide a comprehensive picture of what climate change will mean at a state level.

Earlier this year Dr. Niemi released groundbreaking analysis of how climate change will impact three other westerns states: Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico.  Niemi’s studies are designed to help families, businesses, and communities better understand the economic challenges posed by climate change and what will happen if we fail to address this issue.

In Oregon, for example, Niemi found that while some impacts may be beneficial—such as slightly longer growing seasons—the overall cost to the state would be $3.3 billion annually by the year 2020 from factors such as decreased public health, reduced fisheries, and flood and storm damage.

At the family level, Dr. Niemi’s research shows that Oregon households, on average, could incur annual costs of $1,930 by 2020; or more than four percent of the current median household income in Oregon.

So, if you want to learn more about how climate change could impact Montana and your family or business, come see Dr. Niemi’s presentation and ask questions this Thursday, October 29 at the Bozeman Public Library from 7:00—8:30 pm.  The event is free and open to the public.  I urge you to attend.

More information on Dr. Niemi’s talk—along with other speakers on climate change that will be in Bozeman later this fall—can be found at www.npca.org/mtchangingclimate.

Ray Rasker Ph.D. is the Executive Director of Headwaters Economics, a Bozeman-based independent nonprofit research group that provides resources for helping western communities improve development and land management decisions.

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