Dems Say Obama Can Rope Independents

Why Obama is Winning the West

By Matthew Frank, 5-15-08

	Sen. Barack Obama at the Montana Democratic Party's Mansfield-Metcalf Dinner in Butte in April. Photo by Anne Medley.

The Barack Obama campaign held a conference call this morning to discuss Obama’s electability and appeal to people in Montana and other Western states. On the call were former Colorado Governor and former Chair of the Democratic National Committee Roy Romer, DNC Committeewoman and superdelegate Jean Lemire Dahlman of Rosebud County, Montana, and Lewis and Clark County Commissioner and superdelegate Ed Tinsley of Helena, Montana.

Here are some choice quotes from the conversation, glimpses into why these particular Western political leaders—and Colorado, Utah, Idaho and Wyoming—have chosen Obama as their guy…

Roy Romer

“I think Obama would make the best president and has the best chance of being elected.... He makes tough, clear decisions [like his approach to the gas tax].... He’s cool under fire. He’s had a lot of attacks recently and it shows that he can handle that and he has been cool in that regard.... I think he has the proper vision of where this nation needs to go. He says he’s going to be a change agent and I believe that. There are many, many practices in Washington that need to be changed, particularly special interests.... I think he will be an independent actor, and I think the people of the West…know that we need to have a different kind of a government representing us than what we got now, and I think that that’s an attractive feature.”

“He has the skill of identifying with other people, listening to them whatever their positions are and finding a way—a pragmatic way—to bring them on board and get a compromise so we can vote. And I think that’s a Western way of doing things; that is, don’t get hard-edged ideologically. Find out what is the common thread that you can get a majority for and move with it. For those reasons, I thought he was the best candidate.”

Jean Lemire Dahlman

“I live in rural southeastern Montana, in Rosebud County, and if you look at it, it’s certainly a microcosm of Montana…. There are farmers and ranchers, there are also coal miners, railroad workers, small business owners, the usual array of professionals and the Cheyenne Reservation in the southern part of our county. I move in all those groups and talk to people constantly and my sense is that Barack Obama has the greatest and the widest appeal to all these different groups of people.”

“Another reason...is the way he ran his campaign. That is probably very indicative of how he might run the U.S. government, and it has been brilliant right from the get-go. Who would have thought that a freshman senator from Illinois would have been able to generate this kind of enthusiasm, this kind of fundraising, this kind of nationwide appeal? And he has done that.”

“He’s the kind of person, I think, who could bring together independents, Republicans and Democrats. We all have to work very hard. We’re in a terrible mess, domestically and abroad, and we need somebody bigger than life and I think he’s the man that can do it.”

“We have great respect and admiration for Sen. Hillary Clinton. She’s an amazing woman. I’m of the demographic of woman who are very proud of her and what’s she’s been able to do. But, in this particular case, it appears to be his time and his place.”

Ed Tinsley

“As a Lewis and Clark County Commissioner…I support him because he understands Montana and the rest of the West and our way of life out here. These old Republicans’ smear and scare tactics just aren’t going to work on him. He’s been very clear that the U.S. Constitution protects an individual’s right to possess and bare arms. I got to meet with him in Butte last month and he knows—he told me to my face—that for many families in Montana gun ownership is a tradition, and it’s passed from generation to generation. He has absolutely no intention of taking away Second Amendment rights.”

“Also, when we visited, he was very clear that he will protect access to public lands around the West…. That’s one of my big beliefs. He’s going to maintain habitat to make sure the wildlife is available to the next generation. He’s also supporting open fields legislation to provide incentives to landowners who voluntarily open their land to hunting, fishing and other outdoor activities. He has the right values and the right agenda here for us in Montana, and I appreciate that. He’s already carried other Western states in the primaries, and he’s bringing about the change that this country needs right now.

“I’ve met both Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton on a couple of occasions. I hold the highest regard for Sen. Clinton. But, frankly, he’s the candidate that I can enthusiastically run with on the same ticket, and not have to worry about some of the other stuff that other candidates may have, some of the baggage that other candidates may have…. I’d be very proud to be on the state ballot with him.”


Bits and pieces from the question and answer session that followed...

Q: Chuck Johnson of Lee Newspapers asked, Is Obama coming to Billings?

A: Dan Leistikow, Obama staffer: “Sen. Obama, I can tell you, is going to be campaigning aggressively in Montana and working very hard in the state, but at this point we haven’t made any final decisions about his schedule as far as specific trips.”

Q: Dan Testa of the Flathead Beacon asked, What’s up with the Clinton campaign’s position on seating the Florida and Michigan delegates?

A: Roy Romer: “Even as close as I am to politics, this goalpost-moving confuses me…. The party has got to maintain some discipline about its own rules. You just can’t allow every state to go set its primary date. It has to have some consequence for states that violate that rule. If they don’t have consequences, then next year…the democratic party will not be able to control any of its democratic processes….”

Q: I asked, Sure, Obama has appeal in the West, but how much of it is a general dislike of Hillary? Ed, what did you mean by baggage?

A: Ed Tinsley: “That’s hard to gauge. A lot of it is just anecdotal evidence being and living in Montana and hearing people talk. It’s really tough to measure. But she does elicit a certain response from certain people who might not otherwise be very engaged in the process this time around.”

Q: Matt Brown of the AP asked, How will Obama stack up in the West against McCain?

A: Roy Romer: “If you contrast Obama and McCain’s appeal to independents, Obama holds a 51 to 42 lead among independents [based on a national Washington Post poll]. If you contrast Sen. Clinton’s appeal…McCain wins 49 to 46. So Obama has a stronger appeal to independents, and I think that speaks a bit about the West; not totally, but some because there is more independent thinking, I think, in the West than most regions in the country.”

Q: Testa asked, Does the West Virginia outcome mean anything? Doesn’t it have a similar demographic to Western states?

A: Roy Romer: “Theses races go state by state. Right next door to West Virginia, Obama won Virginia very large, 20-plus points. If you look at Colorado, we had about the same ratio…except in reverse. It depends a great deal on the geography of these elections.”

Q:  Johnson asked, With Democratic presidential candidates having won in Montana only three times, what makes you think this year will be any different?

A: Ed Tinsley: “The simple fact of having Sen. Obama on the ticket, even if he doesn’t win Montana, is going to raise the tide for other candidates, I think. It will help down-ticket races a heck of a lot—races like mine, for instance.”

Roy Romer: “The people in this country are really fed up with this administration in a whole host of ways, and that is going to help the Democratic candidate no matter who it is. That’s a very strong advantage to Democrats this year.”

“Secondly, I think the West is changing…. There used to be no Democratic governors in the West and now we have five. I think there’s a change occurring in the West that is, I think, very favorable to somebody who’s a new thinker and a bold thinker like Obama. I think the West, like the rest of the world, is becoming more cosmopolitan. We have more information. The Internet makes us have access to a great deal more information than in the past. I think all those things make us more open to different political policies and personalities.”

Jean Lemire Dahlman: “We have seen voter registration rise significantly, particularly among the young people, and I don’t think those people in Montana are rushing out because they want to vote Republican…. This is a time when I think Montana is likely to go Democrat.”

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