presidential election

Why Western States Will Pick Our Next President

By Sharon Fisher, 4-09-08

Western states that are largely controlled by Democratic governors are poised to play a role in selecting the next President, New York Times columnist Tim Egan told the Boise City Club this week.

Defining Western states as “public land states,” a definition that he said excluded Texas, Egan said 8 of the 11 of them had Democratic governors. Moreover, four of them—Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico—are “swing states” that combined have 50% more electoral votes than the more traditional swing state Ohio. In addition, Montana is holding the last of the presidential primaries.

Egan went on to describe the number of ways in which Democrats have captured key positions in those states.

It all started with Bruce Babbitt, Secretary of the Interior under President Bill Clinton, Egan said. Babbitt predicted that many of the states Egan now describes as “Western states”—which have a combined amount of public land larger than the country of Germany—would turn Democratic in the near future because they had young, growing cities surrounded by public land for recreation.

This did not happen right away because of the Republicans’ “3-G” strategy—God, guns, and gays, Egan said, citing an unnamed Republican strategist. The plan was to associate Democrats with gays, and Republicans with Gods and guns, he said, a strategy that proved successful for a time—until politicians such as Montana Governor Bryan Schweitzer successfully built coalitions with conservatives and environmentalists to capture offices.

Schweitzer won over conservatives by first figuring out how to defuse the cultural issue by making it clear he supported guns and went to church, Egan said—a strategy he still follows today, as he runs for re-election with a 65% approval rating. When asked what advice he would offer the Democratic Presidential candidates who were in Montana this past weekend, Egan said Schweitzer replied, “We like owning guns. Big guns. Little guns. To us, ‘gun control’ is ‘hitting what you shoot at.’” Schweitzer went on to say that Montanans would not tolerate any Democratic attempts to “blow smoke up our skirts” about the issue, Egan reported.

Similarly, when Democrat Jon Tester ran for Senator in Montana, he had that credibility, Egan said.

Once the Montana Democrats were able to defuse these cultural issues, they were then able to address issues such as Montana being one of the poorest states, with 1 in 4 people not having health insurance, Egan said.

The psychology of Western states as the great frontier—where people fled from somewhere else—has also made them a good place for people to get involved with politics, Egan said, calling it “start-over country.” “People re-create themselves,” he said. Because there is no stratified social or political structure, the barrier to entry is low, meaning a newcomer to the area can be mayor in ten years, Egan said.

Egan, who also writes about outdoor activities, poked fun throughout at Democratic former Idaho Governor and Secretary of the Interior Cecil Andrus, who has been quoted as saying, “if it has fur, feathers, or fins in Idaho, then I’ll hunt or fish it.” In one story, Andrus kept the national press waiting for a policy decision for an entire week, to help Boise’s hospitality industry, Egan said.

Sharon Fisher is a candidate for the Idaho Legislature, District 21.

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