New West Analysis

Wyoming Elections Looking Red, But More Nuanced Than You Might Think

By Brodie Farquhar, 10-26-10

	U.S. Rep. Cynthia Lummis, center, pictured with Wyoming National Guard troops in Afghanistan, recently told the Casper Star Tribune the U.S. military should apply what it's learned in that war against Mexican drug lords. A more formidable Democrat might have made that a game-changer, but it looks like her challenger has zero chance of an upset. Other races, however, are closer.

A week out from the general election and Wyoming Republicans seem to be riding a swell of anti-Obama, Tea-Party emotion and rhetoric to a ridiculously easy Congressional win and a comfortable win for the governor’s office in Cheyenne.

Less certain is the race for Wyoming Superintendent of Education, pitting a widely known Democratic state senator against a relatively unknown Republican who has run an exhaustive state-wide campaign.

There are lots of reasons to regard Wyoming as deep-red Republican, as University of Wyoming poli-sci professor Jim King points out in a Wyofile article last March:

• Republicans hold a 45 percent to 23 percent advantage over Democrats in party identification within the electorate (UW’s 2008 election survey)
• Republicans hold a 60 percent to 25 percent advantage over Democrats in voter registration (Secretary of State’s office, March 1, 2010)
• Republicans have won three-fourths of the elections for the five state executive offices over the past 40 years
• Republican presidential candidates have carried the state in eleven consecutive elections
• No Wyoming Democrat has won a congressional election since Teno Roncalio retired in 1978.

And yet it is possible for a Democratic candidate to win a state-wide office in Wyoming – not easy, but doable.

First, let’s look at the Congressional race pitting first-term Republican Rep. Cynthia Lummis against Democratic newcomer David Wendt.

Although Democratic challenger Gary Trauner came within a thousand votes of unseating Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin in 2006, Trauner was not able to run a similarly close race against Lummis in 2008 for one simple reason: Lummis is not Cubin.

Cubin had eked out the narrowest of her wins in 2004, even losing three counties. And in the runup to 2006, a certain degree of Bush/Cheney fatigue was setting in in the Cowboy State – even more so for the absentee Cubin who, when she did bother to show up in Congress, garnered negative press with non-PC statements. Trauner took advantage of all that with an aggressive, door-to-door statewide campaign and almost beat Cubin.

At the very least, that close call was likely a factor in Cubin’s decision to not run for re-election in 2008.

Lummis, who served as state treasurer from 1998 to 2006, had twice run statewide campaigns. Like Goldilocks, she wasn’t a RINO (Republican In Name Only) and she wasn’t a fire-breather, black-helicopter type. She was a solid, mainstream, Wyoming Republican who had never committed the verbal and political blunders that marked and eventually damaged Cubin.

Voters in 2008 didn’t have a reason to vote against Lummis and Trauner wasn’t able to make it a close race.

This year’s Democratic candidate, David Wendt, is no Gary Trauner. An academic and president of the Jackson Hole Center for Global Affairs, Wendt has raised only $59,000 according to OpenSecrets.org – one-tenth the Lummis’ war chest. And although I did bump into him in downtown Buffalo, Wendt is nowhere near the dogged campaigner that Trauner was.

This isn’t going to be a close race. Without name recognition, campaign staff or money for ads, Wendt has zero chance, even with Lummis’ recent remarks about military involvement against Mexican drug lords.

(Lummis recently told the Casper Star Tribune editorial board that the U.S. should apply lessons learned in Afghanistan to the drug violence in Mexico.) In any other year than this, that statement could get major media play and could damage Lummis. Not this year, when extreme GOP rhetoric about immigration and Hispanics is so common as to provoke yawns rather than headlines.

As for Democratic candidate for governor Leslie Petersen, this is an example of a fairly talented politician getting into the race too late, through no fault of her own.

Petersen, like all Wyoming Democrats, had been waiting to see whether popular Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal would run for a third term. When the governor announced he wouldn’t go after it following the 2010 Legislature, the Wyoming Democratic Party was immediately handicapped.

There just wasn’t enough time to mount a serious campaign--for anyone other than Freudenthal.

Democratic State Sen. Mike Massie recognized that fact and opted to run for state superintendent, which would put him in a good position to run for governor in 2014. Petersen, as chairwoman of the state party, didn’t see a viable Democratic candidate emerge for governor, so stepped into the race herself.

Petersen has a Wyoming resume that’s hard to beat – raised on a ranch, rodeo-team member, UW grad, Teton County Commissioner, public service galore.

In fact, were you to compare her resume to Republican for governor Matt Mead, minus the political labels, you’d find they have much more in common than differences.

Both Petersen and Mead bill themselves as moderates, which given how wildly popular the moderate Freudenthal is, seems like a wise choice. But given a choice between a moderate Republican and a moderate Democrat, what will Wyoming voters do?

Against a Tea Party-favorite like Ron Micheli, Petersen could have played her moderation to good effect. Against a moderate like Mead, moderation for Petersen gives no clear advantage, as in “I’ll vote for Petersen because Micheli is too out there.”

And the Republican Party has closed ranks behind Mead, unlike in 2002 when Eli Bebout’s victory left bad feelings among the GOP faithful. Among a moderate-to-conservative electorate, there are no big reasons to vote against Mead or for Petersen.

If Petersen can get within 5 percentage points of Mead, she’s got a serious shot in 2014 – especially if she can do a Freudenthal and start campaigning 18 months out. If Mead’s margin is bigger than that, we’ll likely not see Petersen again.

The race that could be closest between a Republican and Democratic candidate is that for State Superintendent of Education. Democratic candidate Massie is well-known around the state and has the support of the teacher unions and associations – critical for a get-out-the-vote ground game. Republican candidate Cindy Hill is less well known (she is the wife of Drake Hill, a former party leader), but has run an energetic, nonstop campaign.

The incumbent, Dr. Jim McBride, lost to Hill in the GOP primary, because Wyoming school testing has been perceived as a huge failure. That controversy might play more to Massie’s advantage than Hill’s.

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