News Update
Yellowstone Earthquake Swarm Calms
After a week of shakes, Yellowstone -- yes, a supervolcano -- relaxes.By Courtney Lowery, 1-05-09
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| NPS photo by Steve Gniadek. | |
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This story has been updated with newly reported earthquakes.
The hundreds of little earthquakes that have shaken up Yellowstone National Park over the last week, setting off new concerns about the possibility of ‘the big one’ for the supervolcano, seem to have calmed the last few days.
According to the latest data (bookmark this link for up-to-date information on the activity and click here for a real-time look.), the quakes are still coming, but they’re fewer and weaker. Four were reported over the weekend and only one was more than 2.0 on the scale. Another one, at 1.3, was logged this morning.
Scientists call the cluster of quakes a “swarm” and since Dec. 26, hundreds have been logged under Yellowstone Lake. The largest swarm was registered a 3.9, just a hair below the magnitude that begins to cause damage (4.0).
The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, in a report Dec. 29, called the quakes “notable” but pointed out that “Earthquakes are a common occurrence in the Yellowstone National Park area, an active volcanic-tectonic area averaging 1,000 to 2,000 earthquakes a year.” The park’s caldera floor has been on the rise in the past three years as magma lifts, causing more eruptions, more geysers and cracking. The rise is faster than any other time on record. That, and the fact that the supervolcano erupts every 600,000 years (the last was 640,000) means scientists are saying the swarm is nothing to immediately worry about, but nothing to to balk at either.
The observatory’s chief scientist, Jake Lowenstern, told Time last week: “We don’t think the amount of magma exists that would create one of these large eruptions of the past. It is still possible to have a volcanic eruption comparable to other volcanoes. But we would expect to see more and larger quakes, deformation and precursory explosions out of the lake. We don’t believe that anything strange is happening right now.”
The volcano will erupt, but whether it will in two, five or a million years is a nearly impossible prediction. So for now, watch what David Biello says to watch at Scientific American: “The real warning signs will be rapid changes in the shape of the ground as well as volcanic gases leaking from the ground, neither of which have been sighted—yet.”
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Comments
you can see the events for yourself. All is not quite. I think they just don't want to cause mass panic. Nothing we can do about it anyway, but it is interesting if nothing else...
""Is it true that the next caldera-forming eruption of Yellowstone is overdue?
No. First of all, one cannot present recurrence intervals based on only two values. It would be statistically meaningless. But for those who insist... let's do the arithmetic. The three eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million and 0.64 million years ago. The two intervals are thus 0.8 and 0.66 million years, averaging to a 0.73 million-year interval. Again, the last eruption was 0.64 million years ago, implying that we are still about 90,000 years away from the time when we might consider calling Yellowstone overdue for another caldera-forming eruption. Nevertheless, we cannot discount the possibility of another such eruption occurring some time in the future, given Yellowstone's volcanic history and the continued presence of magma beneath the Yellowstone caldera."
Taken from the USGS FAQ.
Isnt atheism technicaly a religion?
so i guess you are right!
Still, how can all this help the real estate market?
I remember Mt. St. Helens well. I figure since this volcano is roughly 100 times bigger (I might be underestimating that size) We can expect 100 times the activity prior to eruption and 100 times the ejection of material (again, probably another underestimation). Since the activity will be off the charts prior to eruption, I think we can assume that we will be safe until that kind of activity is seen.
As far as the real estate market around the park? Yellowstone Club is going to be even harder to sell now, unless some crazy, wealthy cult buys it to be closer to the Big Bang. Wait, isn't that religious cult, "Foundation" something or other, still in that area?
An eruption of any size would be detrimental to nearby towns, but a smaller one would not threaten the human race or even all the States.
Of course, it could keep erupting at a small scale - and then one day....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zULevzGwGn0&feature=channel_page
This You Tube video is my experiment to determine how a magma chamber would erupt if inundated by a lake.
I know where the fault that will rupture is located. I know how Yellowstone will erupt. And I know when.
Watch,and find out more,if you're curious. Ask a question and I'll provide the answer.
Now for Robin...please tell us when it will erupt, so we will know when to start praying. and while you are at it, you can tell us exactly when Jesus will be getting back to us...it has been a few thousand years and we have been waiting...
I saw the flash eruption in a can thing you have on UTube, so what? No basis in reality, except for a vague concept. And as for the statements you made about the earth being covered in a blanket of ash?..Not buying what you are selling there either. A blanket of snow here in Montana is a sh*t ton, and I can't fathom that much dirt coming out of the hole to cover the globe like that! From Australia to the North Pole, there would be a geologic record of that occuring in the past eruptions. Perhaps a skiff of ash falling from the upper atmosphere is what most will recieve, don't you think? It's nice to jazz up the rhetoric for your viewers, but how does that help the real estate market?
All you false prophets of doom be gone! Ha Ha..
I actually misspoke, I get mixed up when I'm anxious. I hate making videos. I meant to say, the earth would be shrouded in ash. Which it will be according to thousands of geologists. And as for when Yellowstone will erupt.
When?
The when of the eruption is tied to where of the eruption. The eruption will start along the original caldera. It will happen when The Huckleberry Ridge Tuff fracture intersects the fractures caused by the Sour Creek dome.
http://www.seis.utah.edu/helicorder/GIFs/misc/ynpwebcord.gif
On the map on this site, you will see the orignal caldera (Huckleberry) marked in orange. The Sour Creek Dome is the northern most of the two uplifted zones marked by a dashed lines, it is just north of the lake. You will see where the first caldera and the doming intersect. An eruption occurs when fractures allows a breach in the system. The area also has fractures caused by the Elephant Back Ridge uplift in the 1970's. A fracture in the lake would allow water to enter into the aquafier and geyer system. The pressure from the lake will force water into plumbing and will widen passages and collapse others. Very quickly, parts of the roof of the magma chamber start to collapse, allowing pockets to capture gas. It then becomes a cascade as earthquakes destabilze other parts of the fracture and chamber. It will happen anytime within the near future. It will happen following a major earthquake.
The most recent swarm earthquakes occured directly on top of the original caldera rim which runs through the middle of the northern bay. The caldera rim is covered with a more recent lava flow from the West Thumb. This cap has fractured during the swarm.
There is a 20 km section of the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff that is the staircase that will allow water to flow down. Down to the gates of hell, at least that's what I calling the area just north of the lake. And I'm not a religious man. I mean it literally.
And if anyone else wants to know how big it will be, just watch my experiment. Just scale to size.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zULevzGwGn0&feature=channel_page
How?
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=S9jUbIY3a3c&feature=channel_page
Smith, R. B. and L. Siegel, 2000, Windows into the Earth: The Geologic Story of Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks, Oxford University Press, New York
This explains the smaller eruptions and the other ones that follow in the wake of the "big one".
It seams like you are familiar with this area and the caldera. I'm still chewing on the 'hallway to hell' theory. Yellowstone Lake is so deep in spots I don't know if they have recorded the bottom and there are plenty of underwater thermal vents in the lake. It rests upon a porous limestone seafloor, so I don't think there would be a problem with water getting into the cracks for the past millenia. Sure there may be cracking, but not a full-on breach of a magma chamber like your experiment was describing. The events that you portray are feasible, but we need to keep it in persective. We are talking geologic time. Montana could be a pocked-up-gooball(technical term) of pre explosion hysterics for centuries before Yellowstone actually blows up as a full blown planet killer. Geologicaly speaking, that is pretty quick, but will be slow and gradual by our standards. Inch by inch the bulge has been growing at the north end of the lake. Mt. St. Helens bulged out quickly, deformed, blew gas and then went pop! Now if we apply the scale that JetMech was talking about, it will take decades or centuries of startup efforts to hit full thrust in Yellowstone. Cascading won't be fitted into a hollywood film i don't think. Logicaly, the bigger the kettle of stew, the longer it will take to boil. The theory of an earthquake fracturing the whole works is disturbing. I remember my geology teach talking about how the shape of the spinning earth would change, depending upon how much water was liquid vs. frozen. As the earth heats up and water at the caps melts, the earth grows fatter. Thus causing tectonic plates to shift. Global warming may cause the earthquake you are talking about to happen, and on a human timeframe. Thats depressing that we humans may contribute to speeding things up, but still no answer as to when...
Watch this video.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=k3G2ieDV-Wo&feature=PlayList&p=8426A6538DD22A6A&index=0
8 pm 2.1 quake
http://www.homefacts.com/earthquakes/Montana/Gallatin-County/West-Yellowstone.html
If you have time you can visit this site that i managed to surf in:
<a >Yellowstone Hotels</a>,<a >West Yellowstone Hotels</a> and <a >Hotels in Yellowstone</a>