Western Book Roundup

As I’ve mentioned on a couple of occasions over the years I’ve written the Roundup, when I’m not reading other people’s books, I’m trying to write my own, and after many, many years of effort, I have some good news: my first novel, The Ringer, will be published by The Permanent Press in 2011.  I am delighted about it.  Now I just need to edit the book and figure out how to convince people to read it.  (Beg?  Bribe?  Cajole?) Check out my new website for more information.

• The winners of the Utah and Oregon Book Awards were announced recently.  In Utah, the winners included David McGlynn in fiction for The End of the Straight and Narrow, Stephen Trimble in nonfiction for Bargaining for Eden: The Fight for the Last Open Spaces in America, and in the poetry category, Craig Arnold won the award posthumously for his collection Made Flesh.  Ben Fulton of the Salt Lake Tribune wrote in greater detail about all the winners.

Also in the Roundup: Oregon Book Award winners, events at the Center of the American West, and Annie Proulx donates her papers to the New York Public Library.

The Idaho Group Blog

With slow but steady improvement in the economy’s vital signs, two questions are gnawing at analysts’ brain pans.  First, is this a sustainable recovery with the power to fuel substantial job growth?  Second, what will happen when the “double bubble” ruptures and some $1.7 trillion in commercial real estate notes come due over the next few years?

Most economic prognosticators portend a sluggish recovery with continued job losses throughout 2010.  New job growth will be slow, they say.  Too many businesses are changing fast or forever gone, like GM’s Saturn Division.  We can’t expect the same jobs to reappear and be filled by the same folks who were laid off.  Plus, globalization and the Internet have changed the game.  Look for new jobs to develop in health care, education, government and within new or fast-changing industries.

As for the double bubble effect, commercial real estate values are down about 35 percent since the peak in 2007, according to Moody’s.  Unlike residential mortgages, commercial loans are much shorter term—usually five to 10 years.  The first $300 billion in commercial-backed securities will come due in 2010.  Obviously, many businesses are on their knees due to the slowdown.  So there is a shortage of cash to payoff real estate loans, especially where property values have fallen far below contract values, which would cause buyers to bring even more cash to the closing table to accomplish a refinancing.  Meantime, lenders have locked down their underwriting guidelines and all but stopped making commercial loans, despite claims that they are open for business.

Opinion: Elections

Refusing to vote, declining to vote, or not being informed enough to vote is a serious wrong.

Ever since our high school civics teachers pounded our heads about the right to vote, we all should know this. But apparently we don’t.

The turnout in today’s election is estimated at 20 to 30 percent. We’ll see how it turns out – Boise in particular has a hot city council race centered around support of a downtown trolley system – but based on history, that’s probably right.

“If you don’t vote, you can’t complain” is a fundamental concept of democracy and fairness. If you don’t help to plant the seed, pull the weeds, harvest the wheat and bake the bread, no soup for you.

The response that there is nobody you want to vote for is acceptable only if you plan to keep your mouth shut about any civic issue that could have been addressed by electing someone else. And if there was nobody else who came close to your views, you can always run for office yourself.

When you fail to participate in a democracy, you are turning your vote over to people who don’t have your values and issues in mind – they have their own.

News Nuggets

Strange things come in threes and this week, three animal stories in Montana caught my eye, each of them getting progressively weirder. 

1. Last week, the Great Falls Tribune reported that a grizzly bear was found along the Rocky Mountain Front shot, with all its claws missing. The scary part is that it was the second bear to meet such a fate.

2.  The Daily Interlake reported over the weekend on an albino black bear near Olney that state wildlife officials were able to capture and relocate to Glacier National Park, where they thought the bear might be safer during hunting season. Albino bears are rare, although one official said they have seen a few in the last 10 years.

3. Finally, the strangest: A downed power line near Eureka in Northwestern Montana is being blamed for the deaths of at least 12 animals. The remains found at the site of the power line included five whitetail deer, four black bears, two wolves, one coyote and a turkey vulture. Read Jim Mann’s piece here, also in the Daily Inter Lake on what created the “perfect storm” for all the electrocutions. Very sad.

Justice and the Flathead Boat Crash

The prosecution of Montana State Sen. Greg Barkus for an alleged drunken-boating accident on Flathead Lake that left five people seriously injured is not exactly off to a smooth start. First, it took an inordinately long time for police to release key evidence - namely Barkus’s blood alcohol level - and bring charges in the case, which involved a high-speed crash into the shoreline and counted U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg among the injured.

Then all three District Judges in Flathead County recused themselves from the case on the grounds that they had worked with Barkus on legislation. A Judge from Livingston was moved aside at the request of prosecutors, and a Judge from Lake County is now being replaced at the request of the defense. Barkus has pleaded not guilty, and his attorney says he’ll challenge the blood-alcohol test, which prosectors say showed Barkus to be at twice the legal limit.

It’s easy to see why judges would view the case as the worst kind of lose-lose proposition. Come down hard on Barkus, and his influential friends (who might be your friends too) will hate you for it. Go easy, and your neighbors (and the voters) will hate you for it. 

The Idaho Group Blog

The radio news squawk lately has been about Global Warming, the latest in an endless supply of silly partisan battles.  As I hear one team arguing that a new Senate bill will create jobs and save the planet, I hear the other team telling us that same Senate bill will increase our taxes and crush the economy. Since we all side with the home team, it’s no wonder polls asking us – Global Warming, True or False? – are becoming red and blue in color.  And just like NFL football, I’m tired of the commercials…let’s get to the game!

We’re arguing a pointless debate.

Both sides are wrong because the very premise of the debate is flawed.

It’s not about “if” global warming is real or “who” is to blame.  How can anyone “know” that our planet is warming, let alone “know” humans are the cause of the warming?  To think that we understand how this living system we call earth operates is nothing but over-inflated human ego.  The fact is we don’t know what’s going to happen.  Every time we think we know what’s going on in nature, we get proven wrong.  Let’s stop the debate and get to the real problems.

This is my breakdown for all the proud-to-guzzle-gas-rednecks and all the entitled-Prius-latte-drinking-hippies….we’re going to have too many people on the planet soon and too few resources to keep our current economic system moving.

Luxury Resorts

It’s no secret that the luxury second-home market in the Mountain West has taken a huge hit since the national housing market went south, and the Wall Street Journal today does a nice job of detailing the carnage at the highest of the high-end hot-spots. A 10,000 square foot house in the prestigious Starwood area of Aspen (6 acres, barn and guest house) is now listed at $9.95 millioin, down from $15.9 million - and it hasn’t sold yet. Sun Valley, Jackson Hole and Park City are all seeing dramatic declines in sale prices and transaction volume.

While there are some signals that the high-end resort market isn’t totally dead - Sam Byrne, the new owner of the Yellowstone Club in Montana, reported surprisingly strong sales activity when he spoke at NewWest.Net’s recent conference - the frenzied building of the 1990s and 2000s has left plenty of inventory of multi-million-dollar mountain homes that will undoubtedly take a while to absorb - even in Aspen.

Commentary

A massive job awaits Jonathan Jarvis, the man who became chief of national parks this month, according to a fine feature story by Todd Wilkinson (which was published today in the Flathead Beacon).

The new park service director, a 32-year veteran of the National Park Service, kicked off his new job by visiting the home of conservationist John Muir and taking his family to Yosemite National Park, Wilkinson writes. If Jarvis got some extra energy from the trips, that’s good, the story notes. Because he’ll need it.

Press Release: Green Power in Montana

Comprehensive clean energy and climate change legislation now before Congress could create 13,000 jobs in Montana by 2020 and would increase average household incomes in the state, according to research announced today by environmental groups.

The groups releasing the information include Climate Solutions and Montana Business Leaders for Clean Energy; CERES; the Clean Economy Network; and Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2).

According to the groups, “clean energy legislation would create 918,000 to 1.9 million new jobs nationally, and increase national GDP by $39 billion to $111 billion more than what would occur without the legislation.”

Environment

An initial hearing Tuesday on revamped cap-and-trade legislation from Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry, D-MA, and Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer, D-CA) gave moderates a public mouthpiece that might spur concessions from party leaders down the road.

At the hearing in Boxer’s panel Tuesday, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus, D-MT, cited “serious reservations” about the bill’s requirement for U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced 20 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

Boxer replied: “The goal is very, very doable.” Kerry agreed but said the target could change. “We’ll see what happens on the floor on that,” Kerry said. “I’m open to talking with Max; we’ll see where we end up.”

Boxer said she wants her climate bill to continue to preserve EPA’s ability to regulate greenhouse gases despite complaints Tuesday from Baucus and Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa. “We have to keep the EPA in the game,” Boxer said. But, she added, “There are ways to make it more certain for people.” Specter challenged EPA Administrator Jackson at the hearing and Democratic leaders afterward to provide regulatory certainty.

“There’s a great deal to be gained by certainty so people can make plans,” Specter told Jackson. He also emphasized it is the job of Congress to lay out that roadmap for industries. “That’s really our job,” he said.